Analisis Ketahanan Remaja Perempuan di Perdesaan terhadap Pernikahan Dini di Indonesia dengan Log-logistic Gamma Shared Frailty Survival Model

Werri Yulianto, Hardius Usman

Abstract

Pada tahun 2022, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat bahwa angka pernikahan dini di wilayah perdesaan dua kali lebih tinggi dibandingkan perkotaan. Praktik ini masih didukung sebagai bagian dari tradisi, meskipun merupakan bentuk pelanggaran terhadap hak anak dan kekerasan terhadap perempuan. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis survival dengan model shared frailty log-logistic gamma berdasarkan data Susenas 2022 untuk mengkaji faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ketahanan remaja perempuan perdesaan usia 15–24 tahun terhadap pernikahan dini. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pendidikan perempuan, tingkat kesejahteraan, dan jumlah anggota rumah tangga menjadi faktor pengaruh yang paling besar terhadap ketahanan remaja perempuan di perdesaan dari pernikahan dini. Selain itu, terdapat pengaruh faktor tak terobservasi (shared frailty) pada setiap kabupaten/kota yang menunjukkan variasi karakteristik antar wilayah dari ketahanan remaja perempuan di perdesaan terhadap pernikahan dini. Pencegahan pernikahan dini memerlukan pendekatan komprehensif melalui peningkatan akses pendidikan, pemberdayaan ekonomi perempuan, serta penguatan sosialisasi dan pendidikan kesehatan reproduksi.

In 2022, BPS recorded that the number of early marriage in rural areas was twice than urban areas. Rural communities still support early marriage as a form of local tradition and culture, even though early marriage is a form of violence against women that violates children's rights. This study uses survival analysis with a shared frailty log-logistic gamma model to analyze the variables that influence the resilience of rural Indonesian girls aged 15-24 against early marriage based on data from the National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas 2022). The results show that the level of education, welfare level, and number of household members have the greatest influence on the resilience of rural adolescent girls to early marriage. In addition, there is an influence of unobserved factors (shared frailty) in each district/city, which shows variations in characteristics between regions in terms of the resilience of rural adolescent girls to early marriage in Indonesia. Preventing early marriage requires a holistic approach through the empowerment of women, especially in rural areas, by increasing access to education, economic independence, and support for entrepreneurship programs. In addition, raising public awareness through social outreach, institutional cooperation, and strengthening sex education and reproductive health are important steps to reduce early marriage.

Kata kunci: Pernikahan dini, analisis survival, shared frailty.

Keywords: Early marriage, survival analysis, shared frailty.

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References

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.13057/ijas.v8i2.87185

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