Pemodelan Kasus Kronis Filariasis di Indonesia Tahun 2019 Menggunakan Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR)

Sri Rahayu Yogyana Sinurat, Ernawati Pasaribu

Abstract

Filariasis is a mosquito-borne disease caused by filarial worms. In Indonesia, filariasis is the third most common vector-borne and zoonotic disease in the community. Patients who in the chronic stage will fell pain due to swelling and infection in the limbs so that it can ruin the daily activities, reduce work productivity and cause economic losses for both sufferers and the country. In 2019, there were 28 filariasis endemic provinces and only 6 non-endemic provinces. This shows that the treatment of filariasis has not been fully successful. This study aims to determine the general description of chronic cases of filariasis, identify spatial heterogeneity and analyze factors that influence the number of chronic cases of filariasis using GWNBR. The modeling results five provinces groups based on significant variables. Variables that have a significant effect in all provinces are the ratio of health facilities of 100,000 population, the percentage of regions with PHBS policies and the average humidity. Meanwhile, the significant variables in several provinces are the percentage of slum households, the percentage of poor people and the average air temperature.

Keywords: filariasis; overdispersion; spatial heterogeneity; negative binomial; GWNBR

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.13057/ijas.v5i1.59127

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