Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Penyebaran Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue (Dbd) di Provinsi Jawa Tengah dengan Metode Spatial Autoregressive Model dan Spatial Durbin Model

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. From year to year, DHF causes Extraordinary Event in most parts of Indonesia, especially Central Java. Central Java consists of 35 districts or cities where each region is close to each other. Spatial regression is an analysis that suspects the influence of independent variables on the dependent variables with the influences of the region inside. In spatial regression modeling, there are spatial autoregressive model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM) and spatial autoregressive moving average (SARMA). Spatial durbin model is the development of SAR where the dependent and independent variable have spatial influence. In this research dependent variable used is number of DHF sufferers. The independent variables observed are population density, number of hospitals, residents and health centers, and mean years of schooling. From the multiple regression model test, the variables that significantly affect the spread of DHF disease are the population and mean years of schooling. Moran’s I test results stated that there are spatial dependencies between dependent and independent variables. The best model produced is the SAR model because it has the smallest AIC value of 49.61