Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Maharashtra State of India Using Statistical Model and GIS Mapping

Anirup Sengupta, Mohanasundari Thangavel

Abstract

Cotton is a prominent cash crop cultivated for fiber, edible oil and oil cake. A global environmental issue, like climate change, alters weather parameters necessary for the healthy growth and development of cotton plants, affecting fiber quality and economic yield. The study aims to illustrate the evidence of climate change in Maharashtra and assess its impact on the production of cotton in this region. The study was conducted in the state of Maharashtra, India. Geographic information system (GIS)-based models were created based on the vector data (geopolitical boundaries of the state of Maharashtra and its districts) and the corresponding raster attributes (meteorological data) to examine the changes in the patterns of distribution of temperature, rainfall and severity of drought (Standardized Precipitation Index-SPI) over the study period (1990 to 2015). Further, a statistical multiple linear regression model was developed using district-wise data on yield and climatic parameters obtained from International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) to estimate the relationship between the dependent variable (yield of cotton) and the independent variables (annual rainfall and annual mean temperature). GIS modeling and mapping provide evidence of changes in the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature. Although the regression analysis seems weak, it is acceptable for natural systems because natural systems are complex and often highly variable, making it difficult to create a perfect model. The multiple linear regression model shows that such changes in climatic parameters have a significant negative impact on the economic yield of cotton.

Keywords

cotton cultivation; environmental stress; multiple linear regression; remote sensing data

Full Text:

PDF

References

Adare, Z. M., Srinivas, A., Rao, V. P., Prakash, T. R., & Thatikunta, T. R. (2016). Association of weather variables with yield and yield components of cotton (Gossypium hirsutun L.) at reproductive phenophase. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 11(29), 2555–2561. https://doi.org/10.5897/ajar2016.11090

Adhav, C. A., Chandel, B. S., Bhandari, G., Ponnusamy, K., & Ram, H. (2021). Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change–Index development and mapping for districts in Maharashtra, India. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3854297

Ali, M. A., Hassan, M., Mehmood, M., Kazmi, D. H., Chishtie, F. A., & Shahid, I. (2022). The potential impact of climate extremes on cotton and wheat crops in Southern Punjab, Pakistan. Sustainability, 14(3), 1609. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031609

Arshad, A., Raza, M. A., Zhang, Y., Zhang, L., Wang, X., Ahmed, M., & Habib-Ur-rehman, M. (2021). Impact of climate warming on cotton growth and yields in China and Pakistan: A regional perspective. Agriculture, 11(2), 97. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11020097

Asaminew, T. G., Araya, A., Atkilt, G., & Solomon, H. (2017). Modeling the potential impact of climate change on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) production in Northeastern Semi-Arid Afar and Western Tigray Regions of Ethiopia. Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change, 8(3), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000390

Balasubramanian, M., & Birundha, V. D. (2012). Climate change and its impact on India. The IUP Journal of Environmental Sciences, 6(1), 31–46. Retrieved from https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=id&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Climate+Change+and+Its+Impact+on+India+Balasubramanian&btnG=

Bhattacharyya, T., Pal, D. K., Mandal, C., Chandran, P., Ray, S. K., Sarkar, D., … & Nimkhedkar, S. S. (2013). Soils of India: Historical perspective, classification and recent advances. Current Science, 104(10), 1308–1323. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/24092506

Blaise, D., & Kranthi, K. R. (2019). Cotton production in India. Cotton Production, 193–215. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119385523.ch10

Burke, J. J., Mahan, J. R., & Hatfield, J. L. (1988). Crop‐specific thermal kinetic windows in relation to wheat and cotton biomass production. Agronomy Journal, 80(4), 553–556. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj1988.00021962008000040001x

Cotton Advisory Board. (2019). Cotton sector. Retrieved from http://ministryoftextiles.gov.in/sites/default/files/Textiles-Sector-Cotton-Sep19.pdf

Cotton Corporation of India. (2021). National cotton scenario. Retrieved from https://cotcorp.org.in/national_cotton.aspx

Gwimbi, P., & Mundoga, T. (2010). Impact of climate change on cotton production under rainfed conditions: Case of Gokwe. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 12(8), 59–69. Retrieved from https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=id&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Impact+of+climate+change+on+cotton+production+under+rainfed+conditions%3A+case+of+Gokwe&btnG=

Iqbal, M. A., Ping, Q., Abid, M., Kazmi, S. M. M., & Rizwan, M. (2016). Assessing risk perceptions and attitude among cotton farmers: A case of Punjab Province, Pakistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 16, 68–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.01.009

Jans, Y., Von Bloh, W., Schaphoff, S., Müller, C., & Jans, Y. (2021). Global cotton production under climate change-implications for yield and water consumption. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(4), 2027–2044. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021

Javadinejad, S., Dara, R., & Jafary, F. (2021). Analysis and prioritization the effective factors on increasing farmers resilience under climate change and drought. Agricultural Research, 10, 497–513. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-020-00516-w

Kalubarme, M., Acharya, M., & Shukla, S. H. (2019). Monitoring drought and its impact on agriculture using drought indices and geo-informatics technology in Patan District, Gujarat. International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics, 6(2), 153–162. https://doi.org/10.30897/ijegeo.554465

Kang, H., & Zhao, H. (2020). Description and application research of multiple regression model optimization algorithm based on data set denoising. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1631, 012063. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1631/1/012063

Karimi, V., Karami, E., & Keshavarz, M. (2018). Climate change and agriculture: Impacts and adaptive responses in Iran. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(17)61794-5

Li, N., Yao, N., Li, Y., Chen, J., Liu, D., Biswas, A., … & Chen, X. (2021). A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches. Agricultural Systems, 193, 103221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103221

Lokhande, S., & Reddy, K. R. (2014). Quantifying temperature effects on cotton reproductive efficiency and fiber quality. Agronomy Journal, 106(4), 1275–1282. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj13.0531

Luo, Q., Bange, M., & Clancy, L. (2014). Cotton crop phenology in a new temperature regime. Ecological Modelling, 285, 22–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.04.018

Malhi, G. S., Kaur, M., & Kaushik, P. (2021). Impact of climate change on agriculture and its mitigation strategies: A review. Sustainability, 13(3), 1318. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031318

Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., ... & Zhou, B. (2021). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

McKee, T. B., Nolan, J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17(22), 179–183. Retrieved from https://climate.colostate.edu/pdfs/relationshipofdroughtfrequency.pdf

Mukherjee, S., Mishra, A., & Trenberth, K. E. (2018). Climate change and drought: A perspective on drought indices. Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 145–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0098-x

Nadiruzzaman, M., Rahman, M., Pal, U., Croxton, S., Rashid, M. B., Bahadur, A., & Huq, S. (2021). Impact of climate change on cotton production in Bangladesh. Sustainability, 13(2), 574. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020574

Nath, R., Nath, D., Li, Q., Chen, W., & Cui, X. (2017). Impact of drought on agriculture in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, India. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 34, 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6102-2

Nikam, V., Ashok, A., & Pal, S. (2022). Farmers’ information needs, access and its impact: Evidence from different cotton producing regions in the Maharashtra state of India. Agricultural Systems, 196, 103317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103317

Palanisami, K., Reddy, K. K., Raman, S., & Mohanasundari, T. (2017). Policy options for better implementation of micro irrigation: Case study of India. In Micro Irrigation Engineering for Horticultural Crops (pp. 37-50). Florida, United States: Apple Academic Press. Retrieved from https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=id&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Policy+Options+for+Better+Implementation+of+Micro+Irrigation%3A+Case+Study+of+India&btnG=

Rana, A., Foster, K., Bosshard, T., Olsson, J., & Bengtsson, L. (2014). Impact of climate change on rainfall over Mumbai using distribution-based scaling of global climate model projections. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 1, 107–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.06.005

Sahito, A., Baloch, Z. A., Mahar, A., Otho, S. A., Kalhoro, S. A., Ali, A., … Ali, F. (2015). Effect of water stress on the growth and yield of cotton crop. American Journal of Plant Sciences, 6(7), 1027–1039. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajps.2015.67108

Sawan, Z. M. (2013). Applied methods for studying the relationship between climatic factors and cotton production. Agricultural Sciences, 4(11), 37–54. https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2013.411a005

Sawan, Z. M. (2017). Cotton production and climatic factors: Studying the nature of its relationship by different statistical methods. Cogent Biology, 3(1), 1292882. https://doi.org/10.1080/23312025.2017.1292882

Sawan, Z. M. (2018). Climatic variables: Evaporation, sunshine, relative humidity, soil and air temperature and its adverse effects on cotton production. Information Processing in Agriculture, 5(1), 134–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inpa.2017.09.006

Sreenath, A. V., Abhilash, S., Vijaykumar, P., & Mapes, B. E. (2022). West coast India’s rainfall is becoming more convective. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, 36. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00258-2

Tabari, H. (2020). Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Scientific Reports, 10, 13768. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2

Uyanık, G. K., & Güler, N. (2013). A study on multiple linear regression analysis. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 106, 234–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.12.027

Varga, A. (2021). Climate change and its impact on agriculture. Acta Horticulturae et Regiotecturae, 24(s1), 50–57. https://doi.org/10.2478/ahr-2021-0010

Vyankatrao, N. P. (2017). Impact of climate change on agricultural production in India: Effect on rice productivity. Bioscience Discovery, 8(4), 897–914. Retrieved from https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=id&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Impact+of+climate+change+on+agricultural+production+in+India%3A+effect+on+rice+productivity&btnG=

Wang, S., Li, Y., Yuan, J., Song, L., Liu, X., & Liu, X. (2021). Recognition of cotton growth period for precise spraying based on convolution neural network. Information Processing in Agriculture, 8(2), 219–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inpa.2020.05.001

Xu, B., Zhou, Z. G., Guo, L. T., Xu, W. Z., Zhao, W. Q., Chen, B. L., … & Wang, Y. H. (2017). Susceptible time window and endurable duration of cotton fiber development to high temperature stress. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 16(9), 1936–1945. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(16)61566-6

Ye, L., & Grimm, N. B. (2013). Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest. Climatic Change, 120, 419–431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0827-z

Zafar, S. A., Noor, M. A., Waqas, M. A., Wang, X., Shaheen, T., Raza, M., & Rahman, M. U. (2018). Temperature extremes in cotton production and mitigation strategies. Past, Present and Future Trends in Cotton Breeding, 4, 65–91. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.74648

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20961/carakatani.v38i1.64377

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share