Simulation on the Spreading of Infectious Disease HIV/AIDS in Central Java Using SIR Epidemic Model (Susceptible, Infected, Removed)

Abstract

HIV/AIDS is an infectious disease threating human health all over the world. Central Java Province ranks as 6th in terms of the most HIV/AIDS cases in Indonesia. A precise disease control is needed to monitor the spreading of disease infection. A mathematical model which works based on the changing from susceptible into the infected population is needed. In this research, SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Removed) model is used to empirically understand of HIV dispersion cases and HIV/AIDS endemicity in Central Java. The demographic data and the number of HIV/AIDS cases in 2010 to 2014 are used as the dataset. The result shows that HIV/AIDS infection model in Central Java is y=0.6e^-0.125x, where y is the number of infectious and x is the spreading time. The result shows the average data test error is 13%, and  the potential endemic regions having R₀>1 are Cilacap Regency and Semarang City respectively.