Investigasi Pengaruh Skenario Modifikasi Urbanisasi pada Perubahan Hujan di Kota Makassar

Fitria Puspita Sari; Satriawan Nadhrotal Atsidiqi

doi:10.20961/prosidingsnfa.v5i0.46597

Prosiding SNFA (Seminar Nasional Fisika dan Aplikasinya)

Investigasi Pengaruh Skenario Modifikasi Urbanisasi pada Perubahan Hujan di Kota Makassar

Fitria Puspita Sari, Satriawan Nadhrotal Atsidiqi

Abstract

Abstract: Urbanization affects the atmosphere through the urban heat island (UHI) process, resulting in the change of rain patterns over urban areas. Makassar as the one of big cities in Indonesia is assumed to be suffering from this effect, thus an investigation related to the issue needs to be done. This study contains a simulation of urbanization scenarios using a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model during the transition monsoon period: September-October-November (SON) 2014-2018. The study covers 5 selected heavy-rain-event during the SON period: 24 September 2016, 9 October 2016, 24 October 2016, 22 November 2016, and 23 September 2017. Result shows that the model is able to simulate some weather parameters with relatively small root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and high correlation on three rain event cases. Afterwards, scenarios of 25% and 50% increasing urban area towards Makassar coastal line (as reclamation plan) and existing urban areas have been done. The results show that urbanization increases daily average temperature over urban areas, so does UHI maximum reach number of 1.5°C for both scenarios on 24 September 2016 rain event. Also, it increases rain accumulation up to 50% over reclamation areas and relativeky decreases rainfall over existing urban areas.

Abstrak: Peningkatan jumlah penduduk dan kegiatan urbanisasi dapat mengubah interaksi atmosfer melalui penambahan pelepasan panas yang menyebabkan terjadinya efek urban heat islands (UHI) serta perubahan hujan di wilayah perkotaan. Sebagai salah satu kota metropolitan di Indonesia, Makassar dimungkinkan terdampak oleh efek UHI tersebut. Sehingga penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui dampak urbanisasi terhadap perubahan akumulasi dan/atau pola hujan di wilayah Makassar sesuai skenario jumlah penduduk tahun 2045. Investigasi dilakukan dengan memanfaatkan model non-hidrostatik tiga dimensi Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) pada musim transisi September-Oktober-November (SON) 2014-2018. Kejadian hujan lebat terpilih sebanyak 5 hari yakni tanggal 24 September 2016, 9 Oktober 2016, 24 Oktober 2016, 22 November 2016, dan 23 September 2017. Verifikasi model dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode statistik. Hasilnya, model mampu digunakan untuk mensimulasikan tiga dari lima kejadian hujan lebat dengan nilai RMSE relatif rendah dan korelasi tinggi. Selanjutnya, skenario modifikasi dilakukan dengan menambahkan wilayah urban sebesar 25% dan 50% untuk masing-masing area di bagian pantai (sesuai rencana reklamasi) dan taman kota. Dari hasil simulasi hujan lebat tanggal 24 September 2016 diketahui bahwa urbanisasi meningkatkan rataan suhu harian wilayah perkotaan yang menyebabakan UHI maksimum meningkat antara 0.1° hingga 1.5°C pada dua skenario modifikasi. Selain itu skenario modifikasi urbanisasi menyebabkan peningkatan hujan sebesar 50% di area reklamasi dan cenderung normal bahkan mengalami penurunan di wilayah taman kota sekitar Universitas Hasanuddin.

Keywords

Urbanisasi, UHI, Akumulasi hujan, skenario modifikasi, Model WRF

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.20961/prosidingsnfa.v5i0.46597