KETERKAITAN ANTARA TERORISME DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1985-2017

Michael Fransiskus, Ratni Heliati

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis keterkaitan antara terorisme dengan ekonomi di Indonesia dengan melihat hubungan kausalitas antara terorisme (insiden terorisme), pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdb riil per kapita), stok kapital (pmtb % dari pdb), dan perdagangan (perdagangan riil per kapita). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data runtut waktu dalam bentuk tahunan dari 1985 sampai dengan 2017. Pengujian kointegrasi dilakukan dengan metode Autoregressive-Distributed Lag dengan pendekatan bound test. Dalam hubungan kausalitas digunakan metode Granger Causality di bawah model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil uji menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kointegrasi jangka panjang antara terorisme, pertumbuhan ekonomi, stok kapital dan perdagangan. Sedangkan dalam hubungan kausalitas, ditemukan hubungan dua arah antara terorisme dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ditemukan juga hubungan kausalitas satu arah antara terorisme terhadap stok kapital dan perdagangan, pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap stok kapital dan perdagangan.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.20961/jiep.v19i1.27522

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