KETERKAITAN ANTARA TERORISME DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1985-2017

Michael Fransiskus, Ratni Heliati

Abstract


Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis keterkaitan antara terorisme dengan ekonomi di Indonesia dengan melihat hubungan kausalitas antara terorisme (insiden terorisme), pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdb riil per kapita), stok kapital (pmtb % dari pdb), dan perdagangan (perdagangan riil per kapita). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data runtut waktu dalam bentuk tahunan dari 1985 sampai dengan 2017. Pengujian kointegrasi dilakukan dengan metode Autoregressive-Distributed Lag dengan pendekatan bound test. Dalam hubungan kausalitas digunakan metode Granger Causality di bawah model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil uji menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kointegrasi jangka panjang antara terorisme, pertumbuhan ekonomi, stok kapital dan perdagangan. Sedangkan dalam hubungan kausalitas, ditemukan hubungan dua arah antara terorisme dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ditemukan juga hubungan kausalitas satu arah antara terorisme terhadap stok kapital dan perdagangan, pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap stok kapital dan perdagangan.

Full Text:

PDF
rticle

References


Barry Johnston, R. & Nedelescu, O.M., 2006. The impact of terrorism on financial markets. Journal of Financial Crime, 13(1), pp.7–25.

Barth, J. et al., 2006. Economic impacts of global terrorism: From Munich to Bali.

Blomberg, S.B., Hess, G.D. & Orphanides, A., 2004. The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism. Journal of monetary economics, 51(5), pp.1007–1032.

Coe, D.T. & Helpman, E., 1995. International r&d spillovers. European economic review, 39(5), pp.859–887.

Collier, P., 1999. On the economic consequences of civil war. Oxford economic papers, 51(1), pp.168–183.

Crain, N. V & Crain, W.M., 2006. Terrorized economies. Public Choice, 128(1–2), pp.317–349.

Database, G.T., 2015. Global terrorism database (Code Book).

Eckstein, Z. & Tsiddon, D., 2004. Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(5), pp.971–1002.

Eldor, R. & Melnick, R., 2004. Financial markets and terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), pp.367–386.

Enders, W. & Olson, E., 2012. Measuring the economic costs of terrorism. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict, 874.

Enders, W. & Sandler, T., 1996. Terrorism and foreign direct investment in Spain and Greece. Kyklos, 49(3), pp.331–352.

Enders, W., Sandler, T. & Parise, G.F., 1992. An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism. Kyklos, 45(4), pp.531–554.

Gaibulloev, K. & Sandler, T., 2008. Growth consequences of terrorism in Western Europe. Kyklos, 61(3), pp.411–424.

Group, W.B., 2014. World development indicators 2014, World Bank Publications.

Gujarati, D.N., 2009. Basic econometrics, Tata McGraw-Hill Education.

Gupta, S. et al., 2004. Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low-and middle-income countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), pp.403–421.

Hutabarat, R., 1989. Transaksi ekspor impor, Penerbit Erlangga.

Ismail, A. & Amjad, S., 2014. Determinants of terrorism in Pakistan : An empirical investigation. Economic Modelling, 37, pp.320–331. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.11.012.

Khan, J.A., 2017. TERRORISM IMPACT ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT WITH OTHER TWO ECONOMIC INDICATORS ( INFRASTRUCTURE & INFLATION ) IN PAKISTAN. , 6(2), pp.17–24.

Krieger, T. & Meierrieks, D., 2016. Does income inequality lead to terrorism?

Lincoln, A., 2004. Ekonomi Pembangunan Edisi Keempat. Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi, Yogyakarta.

Loayza, N., Knight, M. & Villanueva, D., 1999. The peace dividend: military spending cuts and economic growth, The World Bank.

Mankiw, N.G., 2014. Principles of macroeconomics, Cengage Learning.

Nitsch, V. & Schumacher, D., 2004. Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), pp.423–433.

Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J., 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), pp.289–326.

Ruby, C.L., 2002. The definition of terrorism. Analyses of social issues and public policy, 2(1), pp.9–14.

Sadono, S., 2006. Ekonomi Pembangunan. Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia Bab V.

Sandler, T. & Enders, W., 2008. Economic consequences of terrorism in developed and developing countries. Terrorism, economic development, and political openness, 17.

Shahbaz, M. et al., 2013. An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 35, pp.21–29.

Shahbaz, M., 2013. Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 32, pp.496–506.

Solow, R.M., 1957. Technical change and the aggregate production function. The review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), pp.312–320.

Statistik, B.P., 1995. Statistical yearbook of Indonesia. Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Todaro, M.P. & Smith, S.C., 2011. Economics development.

Todaro, M.P. & Smith, S.C., 2003. Pembangunan Ekonomi di Dunia Ketiga, jilid 1, Edisi Kedelapan, diterjemahkan oleh Haris Munandar. Jakarta: Penerbit Erlangga.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.20961/jiep.v19i1.27522

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


View My Stats Free counters!