DEPRESIASI NILAI TUKAR RIIL DAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN (PERBANDINGAN INDONESIA DAN JEPANG 1983 - 2012)
Abstract
A research of the relationship between the real exchange rate depreciation with the balance of trade is essential for economic policy makers and the public in an open economy. This study aimed to determine the relationship of short-term and long-term between the depredation of the real exchange rate domestic income and foreign income ( United States) on the balance of trade in Indonesia and Japan in 1983-2012. This study uses the method of Vector Error Correction Models ( VECM) equipped with Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition which is the property of the VECM models. The results showed that there is a significant positive relationship between the real exchange rate on the balance of trade in Indonesia. Domestic revenue does not have a significant relationship to Indonesia 's trade balance, while overseas revenue ( USA ) Had a significant negative correlation against lndonesia's trade balance. Different results are found in Japan. In the short term there is a significant positive relationship between real exchange rate against the Japanese trade balance, while in the long term there fa a significant negative relationship between real exchange rate against the Japanese trade balance. In the long term, domestic income has a significant negative relationship to the Japanese trade balance. while overseas revenue (USA) has a significant positive relationship to the Japanese trade balance . An Indonesian monetary authority are expected to continue to take steps to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and does not use the exchange rate depreciation as a means to increase exports because on the other hand can have a negative impact on the economy. Japanese monetary authorities are also expected not to manipulate currency. Currency policy should be based on market conditions.
Keywords: Depreciation of Real Exchange Rate, Trade Balance, VECM
Keywords
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