ANALISIS TREND IMPOR GANDUM DAN FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI IMPOR GANDUM INDONESIA

Adip Hidayat Rizqi, Darsono Darsono, Agustono Agustono

Abstract

Wheat is not a staple food for the Indonesian people, but its role has become increasingly important in the past 10 years. The rapid shift in consumption patterns of lower- and middle-income groups to wheat-based foods, especially instant noodles and bread, has driven up imports of wheat or flour, and reduced demand for food from domestic resources such as cassava and other tubers. Wheat, being a subtropical crop, cannot be grown in Indonesia, which is a tropical country. As a result, Indonesia can only import wheat to meet its wheat consumption needs.This study used a basic method in the form of a descriptive method with a quantitative approach. The research location was determined intentionally (purposive), namely Indonesia. The type of data used secondary data in the form of time series for 20 years (2001-2020) with data sources from USDA, BPS, Ministry of Agriculture, and others. Data were collected by the library study method against related sources. Data analysis used seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) analysis and trend analysis with the help of SPSS 22 and STATA. The results of the study showed the tendency of the trend of wheat imports in Indonesia with a quadratic pattern with increasing values that are not the same every year. In 2021-2030, the trend of wheat imports in Indonesia has a tendency to increase with an average percentage of 6.38% per year. Imports in 2030 are projected to reach 21,637,774.038 tons with this trend pattern. All independent variables (GDP, population, domestic rice prices, international wheat prices, and dollar-rupiah exchange rates) have a significant effect on wheat imports simultaneously. The variable of international wheat prices has a partial and negative effect on wheat imports, while gross domestic product (GDP) has a partial and positive effect on wheat imports. Other dependent variables (population, domestic rice prices, and dollar-rupiah exchange rates) have no significant effect on wheat imports partially.

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