ANALISIS RISIKO PRODUKSI PETERNAKAN AYAM RAS PETELUR (STUDI KASUS DI PRANOTO FARM)

Abstract

Abstract : the level of cultivation risk, price risk, profit risk, and the large chance of occurrence of the risk and impact of the risk of laying chicken breeding production at Pranoto Farm. The basic method used is descriptive analysis. The data used are primary data and secondary data. Business analysis methods use the concept of cost. The method of risk analysis uses variation, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and lower limit values. The method of analyzing the source of production risk and the impact of the sources of production risk uses the standard value method (Z-score) and Value at Risk (VaR), while the risk source for Pranoto Farm laying chicken farms uses a description of the analysis. The results showed that there were 3 sources of risk namely production risk, price risk and profit risk where CV values <0,5 and L> 0, which means laying chicken breeding in Pranoto Farm is not risky. The probability of the source of production risk is that chicken mortality caused by weather is 31,9%, cage condition is 38,6%, and disease is 29,5%. The impact of losses that can be caused due to the source of death of chickens is Rp 9.850.769 for the weather, Rp 11.790.784 for the condition of the stable, and Rp 8.924.306 for the disease. Pranoto Farm in dealing with production risks, price risks and profit risks, can take seminars or trainings from both the government and the private sector so that they can streamline the use of inputs needed and can cope with production risks, especially the death of chickens.

Keywords: Coefficient Variation, Risk Analysis, Standard Deviation, VaR, Z-Score