ANALISIS TREND IMPOR JAGUNG DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR JAGUNG DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Abstract : Research’s purposes determine factor affect maize import in Indonesiaand trend with projection volume of Indonesia maize import from 2016-2020. Datawere analyzed using multiple linear regressionparmeter estimator using OLS with ECMand trend pattern. The analysis showed model long term  is M = -112752.9 -0.326366P +0.457671HD -1200.398HI+ 440.9838K  -47.22136KR +0.090692St-1 +0.030149Y and short term is D(M) = 87757.6387291 -0.331584D(P) +0.797977 D(HD) -459.6701D(HI)+289.8402D(K)-38.16206D(KR)  +0.162776D(ST_1) -0.033240D(Y) -1.0625RESID01(-1).Model hasvalue ofR² 0,830084 thatmeans 83% of the variation dependent variablecan be explained by the independent variables. F test showedindependent variables jointly significant effect on thevolume ofIndonesia maize import.t test showed maize production, maize consumption, domestic corn price individually significant effect on the volume of Indonesia maize import. Trend volume of Indonesia maize imports during 2016-2020 experienced growth with an average of 12.34% and the average value of projectedis 4,871,483 tons.

Keywords :ECM, Indonesia, Import,Maize,Trend